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An opinion market is a question with two or more possible sides. Each side has its own price. Whichever side attracts and holds the most support wins.

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Questions, not predictions

The question doesn’t need a real-world answer. It just needs sides.
  • “Who had the better album — Taylor or Beyoncé?”
  • “Will the new Formula 1 car look good?”
  • “Best villain of the decade?”
On Morfi, the market decides. Not a referee. Not a judge. The crowd.

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Binary vs. multi-outcome

Binary

Two sides. For vs. against. Yes vs. no. Team A vs. Team B. The simplest shape and the most common.

Multi-outcome

Three or more sides. Useful for debates with genuine multiple tribes — best film, best quarterback, favorite to win the championship.

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Sides and shares

When you buy into a side, you receive shares on that side. You can:
  • Hold them until the market resolves and claim a share of the prize.
  • Sell them back at any time while the market is live.
Each side has its own live price, its own chart, its own top-holder leaderboard, and its own activity feed. Every side is effectively its own micro-community inside the market.

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Why shares matter more than spend

Your share of the final prize pool is time-weighted. It’s calculated from how many shares you held and for how long, across the market’s entire life.

Buy early, hold

Strictly the best strategy. Conviction compounds.

Buy early, sell

Gives up future share, but lets you realise gains early.

Buy at the end

Tiny share — even on the winning side. Last-second sniping is structurally unprofitable.

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The price of a side

Each side’s price is driven by how much support it has. Early on, small buys move the price a lot. The chart is your best live signal of which side the market thinks is winning.
Every market has a clear target, and the chart tells you exactly how close each side is to hitting it.

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Frequently asked

Yes — sides are independent. You can hedge by holding some of each, though payouts will split your share proportionally.
Sell. You’ll exit at the current price. Once a side pulls ahead, selling the losing side costs a small premium (that premium funds the prize pool).
Markets without a clear leader stay in open trading until one emerges. Nothing resolves and nothing pays out until a side pulls ahead and holds its lead.

Next: how prices work

Why early price discovery looks the way it does.